💎 Stop Flying Blind: How to Accurately Forecast Product Roadmap Lift

I learned the hard way that you cannot afford to be bad at forecasting product lift. I’ll never forget the time we had what I thought was a game-changing feature launch—my team and I were pumped. We had all the bells and whistles: internal hype, external buzz, a timeline that felt aggressive but doable. In our heads, this feature was going to make it rain revenue. We even started penciling in growth numbers on a napkin during a team lunch. Then launch day hit…7 months later. We underestimated how long it would take to generate revenue, initially thinking it would come on day one. So what happened? We had to forecast the business over again, ending up seeing us fall shot, and prepare all hands on deck to deploy a new strategy to make up the delta.

It was a tough lesson. One that taught me you can’t just throw initiatives into the wild and expect them to make revenue right away. If you don’t plan how an initiative fits into your product roadmap and how it contributes to your business, you’re flying blind. Miscalculating product lift can lead to missed revenue, misaligned priorities, and worst of all, wasted resources. And no founder wants to be caught in that cycle—trust me.

So how do you get it right? It starts with understanding how to forecast product lift in a way that’s grounded in reality and aligned with your company’s overall goals. Here’s what I’ve learned along the way:

1. Start with Your Baseline Growth

First things first: keep it simple. Let’s say you ended last year with a 30% YoY growth. Instead of getting overly ambitious and projecting hockey-stick growth, stick to a realistic straight-line projection—another 30% for the upcoming year. This gives you a baseline to work from, a number that won’t have you scrambling to meet inflated expectations.

And believe me, when you’re pitching to investors, having a grounded forecast makes all the difference. They’d rather see a steady, reliable projection than your wildest dreams on a whiteboard.

2. Identify Revenue-Generating Initiatives in Your Roadmap

Now here’s where it gets fun—or at least a little less stressful. When I first started building product roadmaps, I figured every new feature was a goldmine waiting to be tapped. In reality, only a few actually impact revenue. The trick is knowing which ones.

Go through your roadmap and flag the initiatives that will likely generate income. Let’s say you’ve got a premium feature launching in July, and you conservatively expect it to bring in $20K per month once it’s fully ramped up. Now, that’s a number you can build into your forecast, but don’t stop there…

3. Factor in Ramp-Up Time

This is where I got burned in the past. I used to think that as soon as we flipped the switch on a feature, users would flock to it like bees to honey. Spoiler: they didn’t. Features take time to gain traction, and revenue doesn’t pour in overnight.

Plan for a ramp-up period. My go-to model is to give it about three months. So, for your July premium feature, your forecast might look like this:

• July: $0 (still getting the word out)

• August: $7K (buzz is building)

• September: $15K (momentum kicks in)

• October–December: $20K per month (full steam ahead)

By the end of the year, this initiative adds $82K to your bottom line. Not bad for a feature that took a few months to hit its stride, right?

4. Make Smarter Prioritization Decisions

Once you get a handle on how to project product lift, you’re in a better position to prioritize your roadmap. I used to throw features onto the roadmap like spaghetti on the wall—hoping something would stick. But not every feature is created equal.

You’ll want to move up revenue-driving initiatives if you can. Maybe even time a feature launch to coincide with a major industry event. Or, if you see a potential gap in your forecast, swap in a higher-impact initiative.

Here’s a personal story: I once bumped a feature launch to line up with a major conference we were attending. At the time, it felt like a bit of a gamble, but that gamble paid off big time. The buzz from the event helped drive interest, and the feature took off faster than we anticipated.

5. Balance Non-Revenue Initiatives

Not everything on your roadmap will directly generate revenue, and that’s okay. But that doesn’t mean you should ignore them. Things like reducing churn, boosting user engagement, or reducing support tickets may not show up in your revenue line, but they’ll save you money or resources in the long run.

For example, reducing churn by even a small percentage can have a major impact on your overall growth. It’s all about translating those non-revenue initiatives into business terms. Once you start thinking that way, the roadmap becomes a lot clearer.

6. Align Your Forecast with Your Company Budget

This is where it all comes together. Your baseline growth + product roadmap lift = your company forecast. If you’re falling short, it’s time to rethink some things. Maybe you need to cut some low-priority initiatives or reallocate resources. If you’re ahead of the forecast? Well, don’t get too comfortable just yet—use that surplus to build a buffer or invest in future growth.

The key is being able to back up your forecast with real numbers. No more napkin math. No more wishful thinking. When you can say, “Our goal is $20M this year, and here’s exactly how we’re going to get there,” you’re not just talking about growth—you’re talking about growth you can deliver on.

Take it from me: being able to forecast product lift and roadmap impact is a skill that can save you from a lot of headaches—and bring your company closer to success.

If you’d like to chat more about deploying these strategies, let’s connect and discuss how we can collaborate to achieve your company’s success.

Onwards,